Also be aware of combat listed Dwarfs. Dwarf stat lines are nothing to sneeze at and with good WS and T they are tough little troops, with the only disadvantages being slow speed and lack of multiple attacks on their units (excluding Slayers).
Combat oriented Dwarf players with low costing war machines are a tough match to tackle. A 160 point cannon will do the same damage as a 105 point cannon, with only a artillery reroll dividing the two in reliability. With that cost, they could run 3 for the price of 2, which is far better deal. This allows them to focus on running more combat blocks; with Miner units providing outflanking support (especially with the use of AoD).
In order to counter this, we apply the same tactics, using cheap artillery hunters (such as Sabertusks) and counter battering with Ironblasters. Ironblasters are great at this, but also don't discount the use of Stonehorns. Although expensive, they can absorb alot of cannon ball shots, protecting your Ogre blocks from harm, and if he decides to ignore them, he will have two unhurt monsters rampaging into his troops, which he still won't have tons of. He can't play the 500 man skaven list with dwarfs, so he will suffer far more with 7-10 Dwarfs dying a turn in H2H.
I believe the phrase I am looking for is, "Off the Cuff", this I mean it sounds like you are speaking off the cuff. I say this because a lot of what you wrote has either been said already but with a different result, or doesn't pass the smell test at all. Let me give a few examples below...
To find a way to sort of match up Ogres to Dwarfs, you can either make Dwarfs cost three times as much so you have the same number of attacks, or you can divide Ogres by 3 so you h 1 Wound and in most cases 1 Attack. Then you can compare point costs and stat lines easier. In this case I want to divide Ogres by 3 thirds which will not be painful as it sounds. Look below some....
There are many more Ogre units we could divide into amounts to get them to a single wound and compare them, but none of the rest are really going after units with the CR that Dwarfs are normally throwing around. I also want to go over the few points I would agree on, those are; we still need units with scout, ambush, or crazy speed at worse to in any fight to pop unit reactions, or go after war machines. The other thing I agree with is that Stonehorns are perfect cannon ball bait, and as Dwarf player myself I would not shoot them with a cannon ball unless I had too. I would run a Slayer Hero out into its charge range and watch it fail it's leadership and charge it. I would turn the model slightly so that the Stonehorn adjusted to meet my front arc and left a flank charge on the next turn. I would trade 50 points to occupy 250+ Hunter if any for a turn, and with luck I would mess up future charges the Ogre player had with blocked LoS due to the Stonehorn's new position. Stonehorns are good imo when used right, and that is about turn 3 + after things are locked in combat.
You also made the commit that Dwarf stat lines are nothing to sneeze at, and I would agree, but at what cost is the question. The difference of WS 4 or 5 is nothing to an Ogre player, if you are a 3+ for the most part we don't care we need a 4 to hit you if you are a normal troop. Very rare is a unit WS 7... the only time that comes to mind is against VC. As far as the rest of the Dwarf stat line, a S3 or S4 is fairly average, a T4 is nice, but many armies have that, and S6 doesn't care if you are T1 or T4. Also 1 attack is average, a I2 is lower than average, and LD9 well that is pretty nice. However, when you pick up handfuls of models unless you are stubborn your LD doesn't matter.
Ogres do not have a S3 Ogre model, we are all S4 +. I am not counting Gnoblars since they are in another case by themselves, and I would match them up point to point, and I bet Dwarfs would lose every time either by running away or being stuck in combat for 6+ sides of combat. If you are stuck in combat for 6+ sides of combat and nothing else hits you, you are super lucky imo.
Lets get to those comparisons now. hehe
Working off the base costs Ogres
are 10 points each they have Light ArmorIronguts
are 14.33 points each they have Heavy Armor and Great Weapon.Leadbeltchers
are 14.33 points each they have Light Armor, and shoot an average of 1.17 shots each.Maneaters
are 16.67 points each they have Light Armor, they have 1.34 attacks, and have a ton of special rules and ways to be equipped.Warriors
are 9 points each, they have Heavy ArmorLongbeards
are 12 points each, they have Heavy Armor and are S4Crossbowmen
are 11 points each (if I remember right the book is not next to me atm), they have Light Armor, shoot once per turn, and have Greatweapon upgrades.
Once per army you can take one of the three units above and make them Rangers for 1 point more per model giving them scoutThunders
are 14 points each, they have Light Armor, and shoot once per turn.Hammers
are 12 points each, they have Heavy Armor, Great Weapons, they are S4, and Stubborn and maybe immune to fear if with a Dwarf Lord.Ironbreakers
are 13 points each with a 3+ armor and are S4Miners
are 11 points each they have Light Armor, sadly only are S3, but they have Great Weapons.Slayers
are 11 points each they have no armor, but they are Unbreakable, their Strength equals your Toughness up to 6, and they choose to use their weapons as Hand Weapon and Off Hand, or as a Great Weapon add +2 Strength to their swing. So they are always wounding you on a 4+ or a 2+ basically.
So when you look at the differences between Dwarfs and Ogres, you can see that they are slightly more survivable than Ogres, because more units have Heavy Armor, and they are slightly cheaper, but what you do not see they are no where as Kill as Ogres are. None of those units get Monstrous Infantry Stomp attacks, and Dwarfs they can be hit by these attack, and they do not get Impact hits. Also because we have more than one wound, when they take a wound they lose a model if we take a wound we do not lose a model, we have to lose three wounds than we lose three attacks. How often do you find yourself near the end of combat with two wounds on a model, that is huge against anyone else who does not have that.
So basically by the time you make Dwarfs slightly more killy, they cost +2 points per model, making them all but Warriors and Hammers cost more than all but the Maneaters which pays a lot of points for special abilities. Even then they still are not as killy as an Ogre is, and we have spells that more than make up whether you get the charge off due to the AoD. Also the AoD still has some punch with the Rune of Wrath, the one that does either a d6 or d3 units take 2d6 S4 attacks. The sad part is, if you role below the score of 2+ or 4+ you are now putting this 325 to nearly 500 point model at risk of exploding. So if you are rolling for an ancient rune of power so you can rock those coming at you and cutting their movement in half or knocking them out of the sky you need a 4+. If you roll only a 3, now you have a 1 in 6 chance of losing your anvil, or another words if you pushed it hard each game you have 8% chance per round to lose it, which works out to be a 48% per game of losing it because the Dwarf player rolled bad. I think my odds are higher than that btw. hehe
Also an after thought, I would never run a Stonehorn into a unit of anything unless it was less than 14 models, without some sort of support. Logic Hammer
A Stonehorn has 3d3 impact hits, and if it lives it gets d6 thunderstomp attacks, and if it rolls above 10 inches it can get +3 impact hits. Lets say it has a lot of luck and gets the +3 impact hits, and gets it's Thunderstomp when I figure this math out. 3d3+3 d6 on average that is 11.75 attacks at S6, so probably needs 2s to wound, so 9.87 wounds. Lets round that to 10 wounds, but consider it could be less, if you have 14 or less models than on average you should have less than 5 models left alive, if you have more than 5 models they are steadfast. I personally side on the side of caution on this, as being held in place is a horrible place to be. That is why I expect the Rider to pick up the extra 1 or 2 rolled by the mount, and I do not go for 13 or less. On average he is going to kill 1 to 2 on his own.
I personally would take the rider with a Harpoon Launcher for free, and let him spend the first three turns shooting targets at a far, than move in and crash into something (S6 at 36 inch range doing d3 wounds is nothing to sneeze at)
In short I would put any equal point Ogre unit against any equal point Dwarf unit, and expect to win or in certain match ups like against Hammers and Crossbowmen weaken them to the point that they are no longer effective against us. Those are the two strong units that Dwarfs have, everything else is not as cool as their points are expensive.
Also Dwarfs greatest ability is their diversity in war machines, as they get more out there for less than all of the other armies, however in 8th ed many games require you to move, terrain has negative effects, and there is more of it. So play 8th the way it was intended and Dwarfs have some major issues until they get their new book imo.
I do not fear Dwarf blocks, I do fear their total shooting lists, as they still can do a lot.